Poker
Key hand at Matchroom. Matchroom on sunday,
winner gets an $1100 seat, (2nd - 500, 3rd - 200),
currently 4 ppl. I have about $120,000 in chips,
and there are about $560,000 chips in play,
blinds $4000-8,000, antes $2,000. I have folded
quite a few hands, not picking up much, and decide
to raise on the button, with 10c-7c. Im up
against the chip leader in the big blind, who is
a calling station, but on a positive note has
been folding on the flop. So in position, i need
to try something. I raise to $25K, No surprise the
big blind calls.
The flop comes 10s-5s-2s. Hmmm, Thats not
too bad a flop for 10-7, only problem is
spade draw. I could move all in, but i figure
30K bet is enuff to see wat happens. Plus if
a spade comes on the turn i can get away from
the hand. He calls. the turn comes the 6c.
He checks again. This time, i bet out my remaining
60K, confident he is on a flush draw. He decides.
to call. He shows As-5h. Giving him a pair and
the nut flush draw. I didnt think he had such
a strong hand, but he has 14 outs (3As,2 5s, 9 spades),
making me slightly more than a 2-1 favourite. Boom, 8s
on the river, i finish in skunk hole.
Ignoring the result, was the hand played badly?
On the flop, there is $62K in the pot. By
betting half the pot, i am giving him
the right odds probably to call for a flush draw.
However, the correct play on his part was probably
to raise me. With second pair and nut flush draw,
he is a favourite against pocket Ks at this stage
so he should have raised while he was ahead.
After calling the flop bet, there is now $122K in the
pot and after i be my remaining, $60, $182K in the pot.
Is the $60K call right ? It is actually correct,
coz he has a 1 in 3 chance of improving, so
he is roughly getting the right odds to call my all in
bet. If i had 30K more , then it wouldnt have been
a right call, making his decision not to raise on the
flop, more costly. The fact that is he didnt really
make a mistake on the hand. Calling the raise with
A-5 pre-flop was probably correct (tho could have
re-raised) and all his calls were mathematically
correct. Just how it goes sometimes...

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